The Insurance Producers Guild
The Insurance Producers Guild is a strategic briefing for insurance professionals, focused on Medicare, ACA, life insurance, and the evolving insurance landscape. Each episode distills complex industry changes into clear, practical intelligence.
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The Insurance Producers Guild
EP20 Advantage Growth is Slowing - Supplements and Annuities are Booming
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Medicare Advantage still covers 35.2 million people in 2026, but enrollment growth has slowed to 3 percent. Most remaining gains came from Special Needs Plans, signaling a flatter market for the general Medicare Advantage products independent agents traditionally sell.
Meanwhile, 2025 annuity sales reached a record $464.1 billion as millions of Americans approach retirement without pensions. Carrier filings also show Medicare Supplement enrollment rising while some Medicare Advantage footprints contract.
This episode explains how agents can follow that movement, introduce guaranteed-income conversations, identify Medicare Supplement opportunities, and use annual reviews to protect and expand existing client relationships.
🔑 Key Topics Covered
- Slowing Medicare Advantage enrollment
- Record-breaking annuity demand
- Medicare Supplement enrollment growth
- Guaranteed-income cross-sell conversations
🎯 What This Means for Agents
- Shift prospecting toward Supplements and annuities
- Review clients before plan changes occur
- Identify guaranteed-issue opportunities early
- Add retirement-income discussions to annual reviews
🔗 Sources
KFF
https://www.kff.org/medicare/medicare-advantage-in-2026-enrollment-update-and-key-trends/
Retirement Income Institute
https://www.limraconsumer.com/peak65/
CSG Actuarial
https://www.csgactuarial.com/news/elevance-health-announces-2nd-quarter-2026-results
📌 GO-DO: Build Your Guarantee Gap List
Review your book and create two columns: clients with guaranteed income and clients without it. Flag anyone facing Medicare Advantage termination or major plan changes. Contact the top ten flagged clients within 48 hours and offer one annual review covering Medicare Supplement eligibility and retirement-income needs.
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Slides: https://www.psmbrokerage.com/hubfs/The%20Insurance%20Producers%20Guild/IPG_Ep20_Slides.pdf
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So there is a silent fear in the field right now.
SPEAKER_01Aaron Powell Oh, absolutely.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell You talk to independent insurance agents and it you can just see it in their eyes. You look at your own book of business and there is this creeping anxiety. Right. The feeling is that the Medicare Advantage market you built your entire career on is suddenly drying up. And you know, you're going to be left completely behind.
SPEAKER_01Aaron Powell It is a terrifying feeling. Yeah. Especially when the well you have always drawn from starts looking a little shallow.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Ross Powell Exactly. You mastered the rules, you learned the networks, you put in the time, and now the phone is just not ringing the way it did five years ago.
SPEAKER_01Aaron Powell But we are going to dissolve that anxiety right now.
SPEAKER_00Please do.
SPEAKER_01The members are not disappearing.
SPEAKER_00Right.
SPEAKER_01The demographic wave is not slowing down, and the money is certainly not evaporating.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell It's just moving.
SPEAKER_01Aaron Powell Yes. They are simply moving. And the beautiful part of this equation is that they are moving to product lines you are already licensed to sell.
SPEAKER_00That is the key.
SPEAKER_01This is not a threat to your book of business. This is honestly the repositioning opportunity of the decade.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell I completely agree. You know, I have been in this business for over 25 years, and I tend to think in patterns. I have seen these market cycles before. So what we are doing today is looking at exactly where the senior market is heading over the next two to five years.
SPEAKER_01Following the money.
SPEAKER_00Exactly. Our mission is to track the money. We have three major pieces of intelligence we are breaking down today. We have the July 2026 Medicare enrollment data from KFF, the latest annuity sales reports from Limerah, and a really fascinating carrier review from CSG Actuarial.
SPEAKER_01It is a perfect storm of data.
SPEAKER_00It really is. What these reports show when you put them all together is that managed care growth is completely flattened. But at the exact same time, guaranteed products are setting all-time records.
SPEAKER_01Setting absolute records.
SPEAKER_00Right. And this is a long horizon shift. It is not a one-cycle event. So we are going to outline exactly how to position yourself for this movement, what you need to understand mechanically, what to say to your clients, and what you need to do this week.
SPEAKER_01Aaron Powell Because you cannot argue with the numbers. And the numbers are telling a very specific story about where consumer demand is shifting right now. Yes. We really have to look at the reality of the Medicare Advantage space first, because that is where all the anxiety in the field is coming from.
SPEAKER_00Okay, so I have the July 2026 data from KFF right in front of me. And you know, on paper, it actually looks like a massive victory.
SPEAKER_01It does.
SPEAKER_00Because Medicare Advantage now covers 55% of eligible beneficiaries. We are talking about 35.2 million people out of the 64.2 million beneficiaries who have both Part A and Part B.
SPEAKER_01Right. They crossed that majority line a few years ago.
SPEAKER_00And they have stayed above it. So if I am a newer agent reading this headline, I am thinking that 55% means total market dominance. Sure. I'm thinking the program is healthier than ever.
SPEAKER_01Well, I have to challenge the excitement over that 55% headline. Okay. Because the absolute size of the program is completely irrelevant to the agent in the field looking to write new business today.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell That is a great point.
SPEAKER_01You do not get paid on the total size of the market. You get paid on the movement within it.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell The new enrollment.
SPEAKER_01Exactly. The real story here is the speed. And the speed has completely dropped off. Total Medicare Advantage enrollment grew by about 1.1 million beneficiaries year over year.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell Which is what, a growth rate of just 3%?
SPEAKER_01Yes. Just 3%. That is the slowest growth this program has posted in years.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell And that is the exact pattern I am talking about. When I look at a product that grew by double digits for a solid decade and suddenly it drops to a 3% crawl, my alarm bells ring.
SPEAKER_01Oh, absolutely.
SPEAKER_00Because the 3% year is basically a dead plateau. We've reached market saturation.
SPEAKER_01Aaron Powell It is absolute saturation. But if you look closer at that KFS report, they actually give us the exact coordinates of where that tiny 3% growth came from. Right. This is probably the sharpest signal in the entire data set. Of that small net increase in enrollment, 85% of it came from special needs plans.
SPEAKER_00Wait, let me make sure I am understanding the scale of this. You were saying that out of the total growth produced in the entire Medicare Advantage sector, 85% of it came from just the SPs.
SPEAKER_01Yes. SMPs reached nearly 8.2 million enrollees in 2026. They basically captured almost the entirety of the market's forward momentum. Wow. And I want everyone listening to really absorb that fact. Most independent agents do not build their primary book around special needs plans.
SPEAKER_00No, they do not.
SPEAKER_01Because those plans serve people who are dual eligible for Medicare and Medicaid, or people in institutions, or, you know, people living with severe chronic conditions.
SPEAKER_00Right. It is a highly specialized segment.
SPEAKER_01Extremely specialized.
SPEAKER_00Which means the mass market individual product, the standard zero premium plan that most agents sell at the kitchen table every single day is functionally flat.
SPEAKER_01It barely moved.
SPEAKER_00That is incredible. So the headline number of 55% is really hiding the real trend here.
SPEAKER_01Completely hiding it. The era of easy mass market Medicare Advantage enrollment growth is officially behind us. The easy sales have already been made. If you are banking your entire future on general Medicare advantage growth, you are basically running on a treadmill.
SPEAKER_00So what do you do?
SPEAKER_01You have to stop chasing the flat lane. You must follow the members.
SPEAKER_00No, you would starve.
SPEAKER_01Exactly. You packed up your car and drove to where the demand was building.
SPEAKER_00But I want to push back on that for just a second. Because it is really easy to say pack up your car and drive to the demand.
SPEAKER_01Sure.
SPEAKER_00But how does an agent actually pivot away from a flatlining mass market?
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_00I mean, if you have spent 10 years mastering health networks and pitching one specific way, shifting your entire business model feels incredibly risky.
SPEAKER_01Well, it is risky if you try to figure it out by trial and error.
SPEAKER_00Fair point.
SPEAKER_01The answer is systematic training. You do not just wing a business transition.
SPEAKER_00Right.
SPEAKER_01This is exactly why agents need to utilize PSM brokerage's business coaching. Oh, absolutely. Because this is a verified service where agents actually learn how to build a true multi-line practice. The coaching shows you how to shift your focus to where the growth actually resides without abandoning the foundation you have already built.
SPEAKER_00You get a tactical blueprint.
SPEAKER_01Yes, a tactical blueprint to pivot successfully rather than just guessing.
SPEAKER_00And that transition from being a single-line order taker to a multi-line advisor is everything right now. Yeah. Because if the mass market is flat and we are seeing hundreds of thousands of people dropping out of managed care, that premium money did not just evaporate.
SPEAKER_01No, it did not.
SPEAKER_00The demographic had not stoing. People did not stop needing coverage. Right. So I went looking for where that money was going. And the answer is incredibly clear. The money went directly toward guaranteed income and guaranteed coverage.
SPEAKER_01Aaron Powell Let us look at the financial side first, because the numbers from Limera are just staggering. U.S. retail annuity sales reached a massive record of $464.1 billion in 2025. That was up 7% over the prior year. And that represents the fourth consecutive record-breaking year for the entire industry.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell Four straight years of breaking all-time records. That is not a blip.
SPEAKER_01No.
SPEAKER_00That is a massive reallocation of capital.
SPEAKER_01It is a fundamental structural shift. The annuity industry has now posted 10 straight quarters with sales topping $100 billion.
SPEAKER_00Ten quarters.
SPEAKER_01Yes. And Keith Golimbowski, who directs annuity research at Limera, stated they are confident the industry will hit the $450 billion range again for the full year in 2026. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_00That is huge.
SPEAKER_01We are looking at a half trillion dollar annual market that is completely insulated from the managed care plateau we just discussed.
SPEAKER_00We want to break down exactly why this is happening. Because when you look at the patterns from the Retirement Income Institute, it all makes sense. Right. We are in the middle of a demographic wave unlike anything we have ever seen in modern history. More than four million Americans are turning 65 every single year, right now.
SPEAKER_01Every single year.
SPEAKER_00And that trend continues straight through 2027. By 2030, all the baby boomers will be 65 or older. But it is not just their age that matters here, it is how they are retiring.
SPEAKER_01They are retiring without pensions.
SPEAKER_00Exactly.
SPEAKER_01That is the psychological driver behind this entire half trillion dollar market. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_00Right. Because 30 years ago, a retiree had a pension plan from their employer. It was a defined benefit. The company held all the risk. The retiree had a guaranteed monthly check for life. The stock market could crash, the economy could go into a severe recession, and their checks still cleared.
SPEAKER_01It did not matter to them.
SPEAKER_00But today, that entire burden has been shifted to the individual. They have 401k or an IRA, which is a defined contribution. Right. So the retiree holds all the risk, and they are absolutely terrified of market volatility, wiping out their life savings just as they stop working.
SPEAKER_01And that fear of volatility is exactly what is driving these record numbers. As Luma notes, these products offer certainty in volatile times.
SPEAKER_00Certainty.
SPEAKER_01Yes. A generation retiring without pensions is literally paying insurance companies to build them one.
SPEAKER_00That is a great way to put it.
SPEAKER_01Golimbiwski pointed out that even if equity markets are bearish in the second half of 2026, these products deliver downside protection. And it is not just annuities, by the way. We are seeing this exact same desire for stability, driving incredible strength in whole life, term, and indexed universal life products.
SPEAKER_00I want to stop and explain the mechanics of that downside protection for a second, because agents really need to understand how this actually works. How does an insurance carrier guarantee in an income when the stock market is crashing?
SPEAKER_01Well, it comes down to the fundamental difference between an investment and an insurance contract. Right. When a client buys a fixed indexed annuity, for example, their money is not directly invested in the stock market. Right. The insurance company takes their premium, places it in their general account, and buys highly conservative fixed income assets like corporate and government bonds.
SPEAKER_00Okay, so the principle is safe.
SPEAKER_01Exactly. The carrier then uses a small portion of the yield from those bonds to purchase options on a market index, like the S P 500. If the market goes up, the option pays out and the client gets a portion of that growth.
SPEAKER_00And if it crashes.
SPEAKER_01If the market crashes, the option simply expires worthless. But the client's principle is perfectly safe because it is backed by those conservative bonds in the general account. The carrier absorbs the market risk, not the retiree.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell That makes perfect sense mechanically. The consumer is actively seeking out that exact guarantee. They want the upside potential without the downside risk.
SPEAKER_01Yes.
SPEAKER_00But this brings me to a major point of friction for the health agent in the field. I hear this all the time.
SPEAKER_01What is that?
SPEAKER_00An agent will say they understand the math, they see the annuity records, but they are completely intimidated by the conversation.
SPEAKER_01Oh, sure.
SPEAKER_00Because if I have spent my whole career talking about copays and drug formularies, how do I transition a client into a complex financial conversation without sounding like a pushy Wall Street broker?
SPEAKER_01You never pitch. If you are pitching an annuity to a health client, you have already lost their trust. You ask a simple question that naturally bridges the gap between what they just bought and what they still need. I like that. Here is the exact word-for-word cross-cell script I use to make this transition. Write this down. All right, I'm ready. You ask them, you locked in your health coverage. Have you locked in your income the same way so a bad market year cannot touch it?
SPEAKER_00Wow. Have you locked in your income the same way so a bad market year cannot touch it? I actually love that.
SPEAKER_01It is highly effective.
SPEAKER_00Because it frames the annuity as the exact same kind of protection as their health insurance.
SPEAKER_01It works because it validates their previous decision. You are telling them they were incredibly smart to lock in their health coverage and protect themselves from medical bankruptcy. Right. Then you introduce a new vulnerability they have not protected yet. It is a question that naturally opens a conversation.
SPEAKER_00It is not a hard close.
SPEAKER_01Not at all. The client usually says something like, What do you mean, lock in my income? And right there, the door is wide open. You are no longer an insurance salesman pushing a product. You are a financial problem solver addressing a vulnerability.
SPEAKER_00But to execute that play in the field, you have to actually have the right products in your bag.
SPEAKER_01Absolutely.
SPEAKER_00You cannot open that door, uncover a massive financial need, and then have nothing top-tier to offer them.
SPEAKER_01Precisely. You need the right carriers and you need them quickly. You cannot afford to leave money on the table because your contracting is tied up, or you do not know which carrier fits the client best. Right. This is where you use PSM brokerage's contracting support and training. They make it completely seamless to add the top-tier annuity and Medicare supplement carriers to your portfolio.
SPEAKER_00They handle the heavy lifting.
SPEAKER_01Yes, they handle the friction of the paperwork and the carrier relations. So you can focus entirely on having these conversations and closing the business.
SPEAKER_00Okay. So we have established that the premium money is flowing heavily into guaranteed income products like annuities.
SPEAKER_01Yes.
SPEAKER_00But the migration from managed care back to guaranteed coverage is not just happening on the financial side.
SPEAKER_01No, it is not.
SPEAKER_00It is happening on the health side, too. We are seeing it show up in the actual carrier filings right now.
SPEAKER_01Aaron Powell This is where the macro data meets the street reality. Let us examine the CSG actuarial review of Elephants Health's second quarter 2026 results. Because this single filing captures both sides of the market shift perfectly in one snapshot.
SPEAKER_00I was actually looking through these filings, and one specific set of numbers literally made me do a double take.
SPEAKER_01I bet.
SPEAKER_00According to the review, Elevance added 19,000 Medicare supplement lives over the past 12 months. That brings their total in-force count to 893,000 as of June 30, 2026. Right. CSG Actuarial even projects that their Medicare supplement sales ranked sixth in the overall market over the past year.
SPEAKER_01Now look at the other direction. While their Medicare supplement enrollment went up steadily, Livona's Medicare Advantage enrollment repositioned downward by a massive 358,000 lives over the same 12 months.
SPEAKER_00That's a staggering drop.
SPEAKER_01It is a perfect illustration of the broader shift. One single company, two product lines moving in complete opposite directions, guaranteed coverage is up, managed coverage is repositioned drastically down.
SPEAKER_00And when a carrier says strategic repositioning in a quarterly filing, we know exactly what that means on the ground.
SPEAKER_01Oh, we certainly do.
SPEAKER_00It means they are shedding unprofitable lives to stabilize their medical loss ratios. They are tightening their networks, they are altering benefit structures, or they are exiting certain counties altogether. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_01Which is an opportunity.
SPEAKER_00Exactly. This creates a massive mechanical driver for agents. I really want to explain the mechanics behind this shift because this is where the immediate opportunity lives for the agent. Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_01Break down the guaranteed issue rights, because that is the engine driving this entire movement.
SPEAKER_00Aaron Powell Right. So when a Medicare Advantage plan terminates its contract or leaves a service area, the affected members are not just left out in the cold to fend for themselves.
SPEAKER_01No, the government steps in.
SPEAKER_00The federal government steps in. The Social Security Act grants those members a federal guaranteed issue right. We often call it GI. Think of it like a pressure release valve. When a managed care network tightens up or collapses in a specific county, the federal government installs this pressure valve so the members do not get crushed without coverage. Right. This means they have a specific window of time to purchase a Medicare supplement policy with absolutely no medical underwriting.
SPEAKER_01No underwriting. That is the magic phrase that changes everything.
SPEAKER_00It really is. Normally, if a 75-year-old wants to switch from a Medicare Advantage plan back to a Medicare supplement, they have to pass strict medical underwriting.
SPEAKER_01Right, which is tough.
SPEAKER_00Very tough. If they have had a heart attack or cancer or severe diabetes, they're likely getting declined. They are trapped in their current plan.
SPEAKER_01Yes.
SPEAKER_00But if their advantage plan terminates, the federal government forces the door open. They can buy that guaranteed Medicare supplement coverage, and the carrier cannot look at their medical history.
SPEAKER_01Cannot ask a single question.
SPEAKER_00They cannot charge them more based on their health conditions either.
SPEAKER_01And with planned terminations sitting at record levels for 2026, we have a massive population of seniors who suddenly have this one-time underwriting free door into guaranteed supplement coverage. It is huge. Look at the convergence here. You have the demographic wave of four million people turning 65. You have the record annuity demand driven by the lack of pensions. And now you have this massive guaranteed issue window pushing people out of managed care.
SPEAKER_00Everything is aligning.
SPEAKER_01Everything is pointing in the exact same direction at the exact same time. The consumer wants certainty, and the market mechanics are forcing them into products that provide it.
SPEAKER_00Which brings us to the concrete field play for the week. Because understanding the mechanics is great, but we have to actually monetize it.
SPEAKER_01Absolutely.
SPEAKER_00Here is the action plan you need to execute right now. You need to run an annual review of your entire book of business. You need to identify every single client whose Medicare Advantage plan is changing, terminating, or repositioning.
SPEAKER_01Every single one.
SPEAKER_00And you need to walk them through their guaranteed issue options for a Medicare supplement immediately.
SPEAKER_01The urgency here cannot be overstated. You must have this conversation before a competing agent does.
SPEAKER_00That is the truth.
SPEAKER_01Put yourself in the client's shoes for a second. When a carrier exits a county, those clients receive a formal termination letter in the mail. They will be panicked.
SPEAKER_00Terrified.
SPEAKER_01They will think they are losing their doctors and their security. The first agent who calls them with a calm, clear solution wins the business and secures the relationship for life.
SPEAKER_00And it is an easy close.
SPEAKER_01Because it is a guaranteed issue, it is an incredibly clean transaction. You are not waiting weeks for medical records.
SPEAKER_00But to get this done fast and effectively across hundreds of clients, you cannot be writing your own letters from scratch or you know trying to figure out the compliance rules on the fly.
SPEAKER_01No, you will run out of time.
SPEAKER_00This is where agents should immediately log into the PSM Brokerage Marketing Hub. They have verified annual review templates, outreach materials, and client communication sequences that are fully compliant and ready to deploy.
SPEAKER_01It is all right there.
SPEAKER_00You just segment your book, pull the materials, and start communicating.
SPEAKER_01It is entirely about being proactive rather than reactive.
SPEAKER_00Right.
SPEAKER_01If you wait for the panicked client to call you, they have probably already spoken to someone else who beat you to the punch.
SPEAKER_00Exactly.
SPEAKER_01You use the marketing hub, you segment your book, and you reach out with absolute authority. You say, Mr. Johnson, you received a letter about your plan terminating. I am calling to tell you exactly how we are going to fix this. And it involves locking in your coverage with no medical questions asked.
SPEAKER_00That is perfect.
SPEAKER_01That is how you secure your book and actually grow your revenue during a massive transition year. You become the hero who solved a terrifying problem.
SPEAKER_00We have covered some serious ground today. We looked at the undeniable plateau in the mass market Medicare Advantage space and recognized that the 3% growth is hiding inside specialized plans. We saw where the money is actively flowing, straight into guaranteed inclinatives and annuities, setting records for 10 straight quarters. We broke down the mechanics of how those annuities actually protect a client's principal from market crashes. Yes. And we looked at the mechanical shift, driving members back into guaranteed Medicare supplement coverage through the guaranteed issue pressure valve.
SPEAKER_01The market is not shrinking. It is just demanding a different type of certainty.
SPEAKER_00Right.
SPEAKER_01Your clients are actively looking for stability in their health coverage and stability in their retirement income. They want to know their doctors will not change, and they want to know their income will not drop if the stock market corrects.
SPEAKER_00And we can help them with that.
SPEAKER_01You are licensed to provide both of those guarantees. You just have to be willing to open the conversation.
SPEAKER_00I want to leave you with a final thought, something to really calculate on your own this week.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Look at your own book of business today. Actually pull the numbers.
SPEAKER_01Yes, look at the real numbers.
SPEAKER_00Calculate your exact ratio of managed care to guaranteed coverage. How much of your revenue is tied up in Medicare Advantage versus Medicare supplements and annuities?
SPEAKER_01That is the big question.
SPEAKER_00Then ask yourself a hard question. Does that ratio reflect the reality of the 2026 market shift we just uncovered? Because if your book is 95% mass market managed care and that market is completely flat, it is time to start having those guaranteed income conversations before someone else does.
SPEAKER_01That's this episode of the Insurance Producers Guild. Stay tuned for the next one. If you're not already with PSM Brokerage, this is the Intelligence Our Agents Get. Talk to us about contracting.